Paul Articulates – A different approach to arm management

Does anyone remember Kodai Senga?  Since his pre-season departure to the injured list on what was then a minor shoulder issue, there has been very little said about Senga except for a brief time when he tried to start throwing again.  He was moved to the 60-day IL on April 10th, which puts him out in late May for a return in the best scenario.

Until Senga returns, the Mets continue to struggle through a starting rotation that has great difficulty pitching more than five innings.  The dearth of quality starts is alarming.  As many of us have stated, this puts enormous stress on the bullpen, and when the pen gets fatigued, the team’s ability to close out ballgames is compromised.  It doesn’t matter that you have Edwin Diaz for the ninth inning if you can’t carry a lead into the ninth.

We have already seen the roster fluctuations as the team tries to keep fresh arms in the pen.  Michael Tonkin was signed twice and DFA’ed twice.  Poor Grant Hartwig has flown back and forth from Syracuse to the west coast more often than a United Airlines pilot.  There are others that also have yo-yo strings attached.  This is not a healthy routine.

A few things can be done to help this situation.  

First, the Mets are going to have to encourage their pitchers to start pitching to contact.  That may hurt their wonderful ERA a bit, but there have been way too many walks.  As of Tuesday night, Mets pitchers have walked 101 batters in 205 innings, which equates to almost four and a half walks per game.  This implies too much emphasis on attempting to get strikeouts, and less on just getting outs.  

Theoretically, the pitching lab data in spring training should have improved characteristics like RPM and pitch movement, so take advantage of throwing in the strike zone to induce light contact instead of pitching to the black and letting disciplined hitters walk.

Second, the analytics guys are going to have to accept the notion of pitchers facing a lineup for the third time.  To save the bullpen and maybe the season, we need to get length out of the starters.  If they take suggestion number one, then they are throwing less pitches and they have some gas left for the sixth (and maybe seventh) inning.  

Logan Webb did that against us Tuesday, pitching eight.  Mets hitters did not fare better on their third trip to the plate.  What ever happened to encouraging pitchers to “trust their stuff”?  Do we not trust it once batters have seen it twice?  Even if they start swinging at the first pitch because more strikes are coming?

Third, the Mets have to consider going to a six man rotation.  Don’t wait for Kodai Senga to come back before implementing a practice that will allow more rest/recovery for all the starters.  There are two guys, Christian Scott and Joey Lucchesi that are pitching very well at the AAA level.  I don’t see much difference between that and what we are getting out of Adrian Houser, so it is worth a shot.

This will take some adjustment on the part of the pitchers.  There is no better time to do that than now.  Once the adjustment is made to routines and pitch locations, guys can throw 110 pitches over 7 innings, rest for five days, and come back stronger.  With the number of pitching prospects coming up through the minors, you could even consider using the same practice at AAA which would establish the right habits before they get called up.

Tom Brennan: Time for a Houser Move? And Lots of Wins in Metsville

AFTER THE 2ND INNING, HOUSER PITCHED LIKE SANTA GIVING OUT PRESENTS

“Yo Adrian” Houser is earning $5.05 million this year, with no remaining options.  

His ERA is a bloated 7.45 with 16 runs allowed in 19.1 innings, in which he has allowed 36 baserunners via hit, walk, and HBP. Heavy traffic.

The Mets are not getting their money’s worth…I think that is fair to say.

A closer look at Houser’s season-to-date splits suggests a potential solution.

In the first and second innings this year, he has gone 8 innings, allowing 2 hits and one run. 

Sizzling.

After that, he has gone 8.1 innings, allowing 15 runs, allowing 18 hits and 10 walks. 

Super ugly. Worse than fizzling.

And this after a high 1.42 WHIP over the past two seasons, even when backed by a stellar Brewers’ defense.

What to do? My initial thought…

Why not turn him into a two inning relief pitcher?

Well, one might ask, who would replace said Bowser Houser? 

Ther’s no Senga, Megill or Peterson to soon ride to the rescue, after all.

Christian Scott? He is one option. 

He, however, in my view, would be rushed if called up now. 

Yes, sir, he has fanned an incredible 26 hitters in AAA in 14.1 innings.

But he has also allowed 5 home runs. 

That’s a lot, especially when one considers that major league hitters are far more lethal in terms of hitting homers than AAA hitters.

I think another several starts in AAA are called for, to not rush his development.

Who else, then?

Why, there is this guy named Joey, of course.

You remember Joey Lucchesi?

He’s the guy who went 4-0, 2.89 in 47 innings for the Mets in 2023, right?

Well, in 4 starts in 2024 in frigid AAA, he is a fine 2-0, 2.57, 1.19 WHIP. That is a far better ERA and WHIP than his league’s averages for pitchers.

The average International League team is coughing up 5 runs per game.

And in his 2023 major league 47 innings of 2023 and his 21 innings in AAA in 2024?  Just 6 HRs allowed. 

That is just 6 allowed in 68 innings, compared to Scott’s 6 in 20 innings.

But, you’re the GM, not me. I’m just a humble reporter. So I need:

YOUR THOUGHTS on this please. 

To me, after the Mets’ recent good play (followed by a modest losing streak) makes the idea of a Mets snatch of a wild card at least somewhat more possible, we can’t have Houser bomb as a starter every 5th day. At least, that is how the fan in me sees it.

LOTS AND LOTS OF WINS IN METSVILLE ON WEDNESDAY 

Lindor explodes, 4 hits, 4 RBIs, 2 HRs. Up from .034 a few weeks ago to .206.  THAT’S A LOT OF “UP”.

Nido, meanwhile, down to .167.

Reed Garrett pitches like the 1986 version of Mike Scott again, as Garrett goes to 4-0, and the win today gave the Mets a 3-3 game split on their tough west coast swing. 

Terrifically Talented Tyrone Taylor had a double and HR, and is hitting .327. Sweet. Maybe he really IS the best player on the team.

In the minors, only a 1 run 5-4 loss by St Lucie marred a perfect Mets day. But even that losing game had “amazing” in it.  As in, Nick Morabito is at .370/.507/.519 after Wednesday’s game. A .507 OBP, translated, means “promotion definitely overdue.”

Syracuse? Dom Hamel was awesome for 5 innings, as part of a 4-0 one hit shutout.  Ignore his season 4.42 ERA.  It is that high only due to a terrible first season outing, but…he has been brilliant his last 3 outings, with just 4 earned runs in 15.2 IP, and TWENTY FOUR Ks. Wow. 

JD Martinez had 2 hits and 2 RBIs. He has to be in the Mets lineup this weekend.

For Brooklyn, Doug Orellana went 5 perfect innings in relief, fanning 6, to grab a “hold” in a 13-3 Cyclone slugfest. Another pitcher went a mere 1/3 of an inning just before him to close out the 3rd inning and got credited with the win….weird rules.

Friggin’ Drake Osborn got on base THREE more times (.464/.583/.679). He got, I imagine, a blood infusion from Barry Bonds. And Stan the Man Consuegra was on base a well-needed 4 times, and Ryan Clifford walked 3 more times. Sixteen walks in 17 games.

Binghamton won 7-6 on homers by Wyatt “Hercules” Young, J Jackson, and a 3 run jolt by Kevin Parada that had to feel G..O..O..D. 

Junior Santos 2 perfect innings for the win. He may have found his niche in the bullpen.

That’s rhe deal.

Tom Brennan: Mets Minors Super Duper Mini-Highlights

JACK WENNINGER IN COLLEGE

 Just a few brief thoughts on special stuff in last night’s minors action.

Nolan McLean in High A whirled a gem: 

5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6Ks. Looks for real on the mound. Hits missiles, too.

Catcher Drake Osborn has been a light hitting catcher. Up about 30 times for Brooklyn so far, .454/.581/.708, which is amazing.

Jack Wenninger, 6th rounder for St Lucie (pictured above), was smoking last night. 

6 innings, 1 hit, no BB, 10K. Last 3 outings, 14 innings, 25 Ks, 6 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs. 

Wow, huh?

Nick the Very Quick Morabito had 3 hits against tough pitching, Up to .365. Get him the heck to Brooklyn. 

And 1B Chris Suero had all 4 RBIs in the win.

Chris Scott went 6 innings for Syracuse, 1 hit allowed (HR), and 8 Ks. We got a winner. 

Big Boy Choi woke up with 2 HRs. 

JD Martinez was 1 for 4. In Syracuse. See you Friday.

Luke Ritter 5th HR in 51 ABs, hitting .275.

Mets? They lose 3rd straight without Alvarez. Hitting has ceased.

Reese Kaplan -- Chicks Dig the Long Ball But No One Digs Walks

After the disastrous end to the Dodgers series and the opening giveaway in the Giants series you have to start to wonder a little about the Mets pitchers.  The question is not whether they can remain healthy nor is it about the assortment of pitches they have in their arsenal.  No, the issue is why home plate has become a “Where’s Waldo?” exercise with having given up recent game totals of 10, 7 and other blatantly embarrassing number of walks. 

Granted, we Mets fans are spoiled by many of the fine arms who have come through this franchise during their long careers.  I’m not here today to bring forward the exploits of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack, Doc Gooden, Sid Fernandez, Al Leiter or even Jacob deGrom.

No, the man to consider today is none other than “Big Sexy” — Bartolo Colon.  This guys career was a little bit of a mixed bag of speed, location, PEDs and girth.  By the time he got to the Mets in 2014 he was already 41 years old and had played for so many teams he outlived at least one of them as he spent 2002 with the Montreal Expos. 

For the Mets he was a mainstay in the rotation for three years from 2014 through 2016, winning 15, 13 and 15 games in that trio of Mets seasons.  He was so effective in 2016 he represented the Mets in the All Star Game.  By the time many of us have decided on a favorite reclining chair in which to watch ballgames or take a nap, big Bart was spending his 40s pitching like a lesson plan for younger hurlers.

During his Mets career Colon was not going to blow people away like Nolan Ryan.  He wasn’t going to struggle to find the plate like Randy Johnson.  No, Colon gave up during his Mets three seasons 1.3, 1.1 (league leading number) and 1.5 walks per 9 innings pitched.  That is not a typo.  He simply didn’t give away bases on balls.  As a result he could withstand his batting average against which was somewhat higher than many would like to see when he didn’t offer up free base runners to the opposition.

During his long career Colon kept evolving.  Earlier after making his way up the ladder from his Dominican Republic upbringing he was not always this kind of pitcher.  As a rookie for the then known as Cleveland Indians he was coughing up 4.3 walks per 9 IP.  He improved somewhat over the next few years but the numbers were acceptable rather than exceptional.  He was in the 3s and 4s until his 2002 split season good for 20 wins, 10 each for Cleveland and 10 for the Expos.  During that year he was 6th in the Cy Young Award voting and a large part of the positive pitching numbers may be at least partially attributed to a never before seen exhibition of control when he now only allowed 2.7 walks pre 9 innings pitched.

As his career progressed, there were a few small backsliding years, but soon that control got even better and he multiple times was below 2.0 in that walk total per game.  He kept getting better and better at working on the full strike zone and that helped make him a valuable mound asset to the Mets. 

He did tinker around for a few years after leaving the Mets with the Braves, Twins and Rangers, but Father Time caught up with him during his ages 44 and 45 seasons resulting in an ugly set of stats — 14-26, a 6.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.465.  Still, through those two years and three teams he still kept the ball in the strike zone with a 1.9 per 9 IP final total. 

Whether it’s early season adjustments being made, ignoring advice from pitching coach Jeremy Hefner (or ineffectively executing his recommendations), the Mets pitchers ought to watch some game tapes of Colon in his Mets prime.  Somehow they have to learn the value of significantly better control if the club is going to continue attempting to win ballgames, particularly with their parallel offensive struggles. 

SAVAGE VIEWS – Magic Number Twenty

 SAVAGE VIEWS – Magic Number Twenty

As I begin to write this, the Mets have completed 20 games and are sporting a 12-8 record.  This has been accomplished by playing teams that all have a winning record.  Perhaps, some of the naysayers will admit the Mets are a better team than originally forecast.  

It’s a fair statement to state that there is no truly dominant team in baseball. The top ranked teams, pre-season, the Dodgers, Yanks and Braves have sustained critical injuries.  The one common denominator for teams with a winning percentage has been a strong bullpen.

The Braves and Yankees have been piling up wins by attacking the mediocre pens they are facing day to day.  The Mets are also employing that strategy.  Right now, our team has not had much success getting our starters to go more than 5 innings.  

Our success is not sustainable, and our pen will eventually falter if the starters can’t go deeper in games.  Before Sunday’s game, the Mets had the best ERA in the National League.  However, losing Raley for a few weeks could have a negative impact.  The good news is that the schedule favors us for the next couple of weeks and then it gets really tough.

It’s safe to say that the Mets have put together a very competitive team.  Like all good teams we are getting production from unexpected sources.  Players like Bader, Stewart, Taylor and Garrett have exceeded expectations.  

The team is winning without significant contributions from our core players.  Alonso, McNeil, Lindor and Nimmo have been rather lackluster thus far.  Defense has been poor and this was supposed to be a strength.  The third basemen have three errors, all by Short and Wendle.  Baty has looked terrific fielding his position.

In the past week different sources have ranked the Mets 20 among 30 teams although they have winning records against four of the six teams played thus far.  Clearly the Braves are the best team in baseball and no other team is close.  

If you follow the numbers, the Braves and Yankees are winning a lot of games with late inning rallies.  Having a strong pen makes all the difference in the world.  There are probably not more than six “good” teams including the Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers as well as the Braves.  All of the other teams have major deficiencies ranging from lack of position player depth to poor pens and few quality SP arms behind the top two or three.

 It’s hard to predict the future but if the Mets enter June with a winning record, they should be playoff bound.  By then, Senga, Megill and Peterson should have recovered from their injuries.  This is a competitive team and will remain so unless we suffer several devastating injuries.  Hopefully, Alvarez returns by mid-June.

As always, I remain optimistic.

Ray

April 23, 2024

Tom Brennan: How are “Star Mets Minors Hitters” Doing in Early 2024 Action?

“HEY! WHO STANDS OUT WITH A BAT IN HIS HANDS”?

First, a report in from Bill Metsiac, bearer of good news:

“JD Martinez played today (Sunday)  for St Lucie:

* 4 PA, 1B, 2B, BB. If no setbacks, could play in Queens next weekend. 🤞”

Bill will be providing copious updates. We’re counting on you, Bill.

Now, to my article:

I took an early look at hot pitchers in an article last week. 

Nothing like a hot burst out of the season’s gate as a harbinger of great things to come.

Of course, when things look sunny in Metsville, you always wait for the bad news.  See that cloud over there?  The dark one?  Look closely, it says "Mets" on it, in fine print.

How is this for really bad news?

Calvin Ziegler? Tommy John surgery. There goes his 2024 and most likely 2025 season. 

What did Ziegler do in 2023 and 2024 on the mound? 

Just 7 innings, but zero hits, 2 walks and 14 Ks - man, what a shame.

OK, enough on pitchers. 

It’s the hitters’ turn this week.

I waited a week after the pitchers' article for more meaningful hitter numbers.  Three teams now have 15 games played, and Syracuse has 20 games in the books.

Who’s hitting like Rose, Carew, Ruth? 

Or like...Ruth Buzzi?

Five guys impress me. In RED.

I’m focusing mostly on top 30 prospects (both from the Mets’ and my own top 30 lists.  Here goes with 23 such Mets guys.

AAA:

Mark Vientos - technically post-prospect status, due to his few hundred Mets plate appearances to date, but he is being treated like a prospect, or he wouldn’t be in AAA, so here goes: a superb .343/.432/.586 with an RBI per game? And he’s still in AAA because…

L.A. Acuna - after a 5 for 38 season start in global-warming-refuting temperatures, Luis has gone 10 for his last 33, with 7 of 9 in steals. His one HR came on opening day.

Drew Gilbert - after a 1 for 12 start in sub-zero March temperatures, he goes 5 for 13 with 2 walks in early April, then the dark cloud showed up.  He “slightly” pulled a leg muscle.  Anthony DiComo reported on April 7 that it was a mild pull. He had a solo HR on opening day, and no HRs or RBIs after game one. Hopefully, he is back playing somewhere on Tuesday (today), as the slight pull has had him out for two weeks after the injury, so far.

Ronny Mauricio - a man familiar with the Dark Cloud, Ronny is hanging out in rehab city. His favorite Frankie Valli song is "See You In September."

AA:

Alex Ramirez - .320/.352/.460 in his first 13 games.

JT Schwartz was 4 for 8 and an RBI in spring training. So far, .270/.413/.469 in AA games. I’m waiting for the break out, once the icicles  melt upstate.

Jett Williams - just .179 so far in the frigid Eastern League for the 14th overall pick of 2022. But 8 walks in 11 games gives him a .360 OBP. When the wind chill rises above 30 degrees, I will expect more.

Kevin Parada - just .211 so far in the frigid Eastern League for the 11th overall pick of 2022. But 10 walks in 12 games gives him a .392 OBP. When the wind chill rises above 30 degrees, I will expect more. His 3 errors, 5 passed balls, and just 3 of 20 caught stealing are a little off topic, but not good.

Rhylan Thomas - the poor man’s Rod Carew, who was the 329th overall pick in 2022 and gets insufficient respect while hitting so well, is at .340/.404/.447 after 12 games.  Hot or cold, he’s hot and hotter.

Jacob Reimer - the IL Dark Cloud visited Jacob - a pulled hammy injury. In early April, the report was he'd return in early June. That's quite a pull.  Not my idea of a pull hitter.

Matt Rudick - back from missing more than half the season in the second half of 2023 with a Dark Cloud injury (he was the Eastern League's best hitter up until early June last year), Matt is hitting just .147 in 11 games.

HIGH A:

Ryan Clifford - he has overcome a cold start and sits at .240/.415/.380, with 13 walks and 21 Ks in 15 games.

Stanley Consuegra - Stan the Man II .229/.339/.292 with 18 Ks in 13 games.

Wilfredo Lara - .200 in just 20 ABs.

William Lugo - just .122 in 13 games, but 13 walks give him a .339 OBP.

Junior Tilien - just .156 in 13 games.

Nolan McLean - he is not a top 30 hitter, he is there due to his pitching acumen, but he has ferocious power when he makes contact. He's 7 for 20 (.350) with 1 single, 4 doubles, 2 tape measure HRs and 11 Ks.

Besides the above 6, Gil, Pregent and De Los Santos are hitting between .156 and .182. All these sub-.200 performances have Brooklyn as a team hitting .198. Not good.

LOW A:

Ronald Hernandez - 13 games, 9 for 44, but also 15 walks. .400 OBP.

Nick Morabito - .333/.475/.500 in 13 games. He needs a promotion.

Jesus Baez - .283/.348/.450 and just 5 Ks in 66 PAs, which is truly outstanding for the strikeout-happyFSL.

Colin Houck - the first rounder from 2023. 9 for 51, 19 Ks, 9 walks.

Marco Vargas - he is 2 for 8 and a walk. Still 18, maybe they are holding him back for the FCL, which starts May 4, to not rush him?

Chris Suero - not top 30, but the catcher/IF has had two amazing games, one where he went 5 for 5 and one where he walked all 4 times up.

No one above is hitting like Baltimore AAA top 10 in baseball Heston Kjergard, who is hitting .350 with a slug % close to .800 and THIRTY RBIs. Mark Vientos is fairly close, though.

And there, as always, are Mets minors guys who are just not hitting.  Mostly a subject for another day.

LASTLY: 

“We added depth to the minors system; we are SO DEEP”.  So, the minors hitters are savaging their opponents, right? Wrong. The Mets minors NEVER hits. Really?

Well, Syracuse is in a 20 team league, and is 19th in runs (87 in 19 games), 16th in average (.234); just 17 doubles (median team has 39); tied for 7th with 25 HRs; and 15th in BB. (It doesn’t help that veterans JiMan Choi and Yolmer Sanchez miserably are just 16 for 97 with 2 doubles and no HRs.)

Well, Binghamton is in a 10 team league and is 8th in runs (60 in 14 games), 5th in average (.249); 9th in HRs (8); and 4th in BB.

Well, Brooklyn is in a 12 team league and is 11th in runs (47 in 15 games); 10th in average (.198); 9th in HRs (8); and 4th in BB.

Well, St Lucie is in a 10 team league and is 4th in runs (78 in 15 games); 5th in average (.219); 9th in HRs (3); and 3rd in BB.

Noticeably absent in all those rankings are being in the top 3 of ANY offensive category, other than St. Lucie being 3rd in walks. 

In fact, walks at the levels below AAA are pretty strong on a combined basis, indicating perhaps that part of the sub par hitting numbers may be an organization-wide strong emphasis on learning how to work out walks so, for those hitters fortunate enough to make the majors, they will not be eaten alive by precise MLB corner-hitting pitchers who will also have expertise at getting hitters to fan on balls out of the strike zone. 

Lastly, the bottom 3 level teams have played 44 combined games, with just 19 HRs, less than 1 every 2 games.  

A disturbingly low number a) even when considering the weather at 3 of the 4 levels is inhospitable to hitters, and b) when considering the arch-nemesis Braves hit two HRs per game at the MLB level in 2023.

What do you think, folks?

Paul Articulates - Buckle up

It has been an interesting run lately, as the Mets have now won four series in a row against some formidable opposition.  It began as our hopes were in the dumpster from a very tough start against some very average teams – swept by Milwaukee and outmatched by the Tigers.  But then when you thought the bottom would drop out, the Mets won a series in Atlanta, beat a good Cincinnati team in their park, and also won series against hot Pirates and Royals teams.  Hope surged, but then the team was off for a west coast swing – always a big momentum killer – where they had to open against the star studded Los Angeles Dodgers.  As you know, they won that series too.  Suddenly we were back to the “Ya Gotta Believe” mantra as fans that had been bemoaning the start were now claiming that they had predicted the playoffs for 2024.

Reality is actually a little bit of neither end of the spectrum.  This Mets team was always built with many solid players, and as we have often written they were being built to win in the near future.  So when they show spurts of success, we should not be surprised.  But we should also not jump to the conclusion that the future is now.

What has worked so far is some very impressive pitching – even with Sunday’s 10-0 loss, the team’s ERA is the seventh best in baseball at 3.48 and it is also worthy to note that they are second in the national league with that ERA.  There has also been some very timely hitting which has led to a twelfth best runs/game average for a team that is hitting below .250 and has not gotten much production from stars like Nimmo, Lindor, and McNeil.  With Brett Baty playing like we had all hoped he could, things could only get better.

Before things really do get better, there are some glaring anomalies that have to get fixed.  For instance, and this is a point I have been harping on for a few weeks, the starting pitchers are not getting deep enough into games.  They are going to stress the bullpen if they continue to get lifted so early in the game.  Currently the Mets starters are averaging 4.91 innings/start, which means that the bullpen needs to provide the other four innings of work.  There are only nine teams in baseball that have stressed their bullpen more than the Mets.  Additionally, the entire pitching staff needs to throw more strikes.  Their walk rate is almost 10% which also ranks amongst the worst in the league.  The Mets’ pitchers walked 10 in Saturday’s win and then another seven on Sunday.  Walks put men on base, and the Mets’ defense has not been up to the task of eliminating them.  Gary Cohen cited a statistic during Sunday’s broadcast that the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric for the Mets was the worst in baseball.  In addition, the Mets batteries have been extremely unsuccessful against stolen base attempts – 1 for 29 as of yesterday.

There are so many factors that go into playing winning baseball, and the Mets have demonstrated proficiency in some areas but also deficiency in others.  That makes the probability too high that things will turn back around and create a roller-coaster season.  This is not what the doctor ordered for new manager Carlos Mendoza – he will soon be starring in his own TUMS commercial with this walk rate and the defensive miscues. 

Some of these problems seem to be very solvable.  The DRS stat may be misleading this early in the season.  Baty has played some great 3B defense, Lindor is a gold glove caliber shortstop, McNeil is more than capable in both the infield and outfield, and the starting outfield is full of speedy, talented defenders - two of which have won gold gloves.  The walk rate likely reflects choices in how to pitch opponents and this can and should be adjusted.

The season is 21 games old (13%) and it is already very interesting.  Stay tuned for the rest of this wild ride.

Reese Kaplan -- Win a Buck, Lose a Buck, Luck in Balance

Life is always about balance.  Where there’s good news there’s often bad news to help correct the unexpectedly positive outcomes you were just cheering.

Take the New York Mets.  They just polished off yet another series victory on Saturday to push them 4 over .500 for the first time this year and it came against the gargantuan opponents — the Los Angeles Dodgers.  This latter day surge by the Mets saw them go 8-2 over their last 10 games and just 2.5 games out of first where (no surprise) the Braves are at the top of the division.  They increased the lead over the 4th place Washington Nationals by 3 full games and over the 5th place Miami Marlins by 8 full games.  Yup, things are sure looking up.

Until...

During one of this weekend’s game it was somewhat unsurprising to see Francisco Alvarez come out given the abuse he’s taken on his hand lately with three separate injuries.  The fact he needed to be seen by clubhouse medical personnel was not the issue here.  Everyone hoped for the very best possible news such as a sprain or an abrasion that might take a week or so to run most of its course and get Alvarez back to his number one catching position.

Unfortunately, the news coming out after more advanced scanning tests was not good.  He’s requiring surgery on a ligament in his thumb.  The word is that it’s a 6-8 week recovery, but considering how critical the hands are to both the catching skill set and the gripping of a bat, I’m more willing to believer closer to 10-12 weeks. 

The short term solution for the Mets was the promotion of non-roster player Tomas Nido to take over what we assume are backup duties at catcher while Omar Narvaez assumes the primary role which is what he expected in 2023 when he signed his free agent contract to become a part of the Mets. 

Mets fans, of course, know Nido even better than they do Navarez. During the Brodie Van Wagenen, Sandy Alderson and Billy Eppler tenures Nido was subbing for a variety of underperforming or injured catchers.  He was always known for his glove more than his bat.  His career numbers are not exactly eye popping when it comes to helping the club score runs.  His batting average over parts of seven years is just .213.  Over the course of 747 ABs he hit 13 HRs and drove in 74.  Scale those numbers down by 30% to reflect what you might expect over the course of a full season.

By contrast, Narvaez is a little better with the bat while also sporting a good reputation with the glove.  His career average of .254 is likely in the upper 10% of catchers league-wide.  He’s had nearly 2000 ABs with 53 HRs and 203 RBIs.  Divide by 4 and it’s slightly better than what you’d get from Nido.

The good news on the younger catcher is that he was off to a hot start in Syracuse.  Hitting .350+ is great news in any league but it’s also a little hard to believe that now at age 30 he’s finally learned how to be consistently more productive at the plate. 

The good news on the Narvaez side is that playing regularly might open other teams’ eyes to what he’s capable of doing.  It may well be that the Mets try to peddle away the remainder of the more expensive paycheck for Narvaez as unless Alvarez is unable to recover ever again, he’s still the number one guy and Nido would be suitable as backup. 

A dark side former Mets front office black cloud is the specter of DH-in-waiting J.D. Martinez.  Granted, the slugging Alvarez had only popped a single HR in this early season, but he was projected to be a 30-HR threat this year.  Consequently with his long ball on the shelf the Mets might be inclined to rush the recovery of Martinez to balance out the need to carry the Narvaez/Nido bats in Alvarez’s place.  That move would put unnecessary pressure on Martinez to light up the HR and RBI totals, but more importantly it might hasten a recurrence of his back problems which have him temporarily sidelined.  A 162 game season won’t be made dramatically better or worse if they instead exercise patience to allow the now 36 year old Martinez sufficient time to get fully healthy and ready for day-to-day insertion in the lineup.  

Tom Brennan: Incredible Mets Day, But for One Sad Thing

YOUNG, BELOVED…AND INJURED 

Wow, what a day on Saturday, but for one sad and painful thing. 

That Alvarez injury Friday? Ligament surgery on his left thumb is the Saturday diagnosis, with perhaps a 6 to 8 week timeframe to heal. 

On a play that was totally bizarre. Alvarez tops a ball down the first base line; had the catcher made a normal throw to first base, no injury. 

But he ridiculously flipped a high lollipop toss over Alvarez’s head - and over the first baseman’s head, too. Alvarez, instead of being an easy out at first, is seeing the ball rolling into foul territory and finds himself chugging around first, then loses his balance just enough to tear ligaments in his thumb.   

You know, another weird Mets injury. We’ve seen far too many weird ones over the years. 

(Remember David Wright stepping on Ike Davis’ foot on a pop near the mound, and what looked like a simple nothing helped cause the demise of Ike’s then-promising career? What memorable bizarre-circumstance injury to a Met do you remember most?)

But this Mets team is right now firing on ALL cylinders, beating the Dodgers to win their 12th in 15 games.  This Mets team is clearly for real.

So, they win 6-4, with a “I’m 100% back” Starling Marte 3 run shot, 4 times on base for Nimmo, and other fine offensive work. 

Diaz gets a difficult 8th inning hold, facing Shohei and Freddie, and 3-0, 0.00 Reed Garrett dominates (again) with a 3 strikeout perfect inning, in yet another remarkable performance. 

Butto started and was solid - he held the mighty LAD offense in check. He has convinced me, friends.

Wow.

MINORS THUNDER 

Then, in the minors, a total flip side to Friday’s total lack of Mets minors hitting. 

The hitters rocked in the 4 minors games, all wins, including great come-backs.

A whopping 35 runs on 50 hits were produced in the 4 games.  Stunning.  

Great offensive nights by many, including but not limited to:

3 hits including a HR from Vientos (.343), 

Ritter’s  HR and single, 

L.A. Acuna - single, triple, walk,

Ramirez 3 hits (.348), 

Peroza (.353), 

Young (.300), after last 4 games’ 6 for 13 and a walk,

Hot Ryan Clifford on 3 times, 

McLean (3 hits, including 2 doubles, .350), 

Villavicencio (single and triple)…

And Morabito (.333) and Baez had 3 hits apiece.

Only sour playing note for me was another ineffective outing for Mike Vasil 11.20 ERA in his first 4 starts). No walks yesterday, but many runs.

And of course the very sour note of Alvarez needing surgery.

Can the Mets sweep LAD? I won’t complain if they do, will you?